Sports Betting Dime has put out a list of the Oscar odds for 2018 in the major categories . The odds are designed to encourage betting/action on both sides, but there are some changes to the voting pool the past few years for the Academy that might create some chances for you that perhaps the odds makers have not fully taken into account. Before any of you consider placing a bet, I will provide one recommendation – Take a Shot or Stay Away – for each category to at least consider…
Some background: After #OscarsSoWhite, the Academy in 2016 added 683 new members, 46% female and 41% people of color. Previously, the Academy was 75% male, old, and white. These changes may seem slight, but you will start to see some changes to voting patterns as more new, more diverse members continue to be hired.
Okay, onto the suggestions (odds come from the aforementioned Sports Betting Dime):
Best Picture
Take a Shot: Get Out at 25/1 or Lady Bird at 9/1. There are decent negative narratives for the two frontrunners – Three Billboards is racially insensitive, and Shape of Water is about fish sex which no one really wants to vote for – meaning the category is ripe for a swoop in. My two shots are well beloved critical darlings everyone has seen. I think Lady Bird has a real shot cause its the safer choice, but Get Out has an equally strong groundswell that could directly cause Three Billboards voters to choose it as the winner.
Best Actor
Stay Away: Denzel Washington at 25/1. Gary Oldman is a heavy favorite, and Denzel’s nomination was shocking due to critical distaste of the film: Roman J. Israel, Esq. I doubt enough people will see this and vote for him, and even if you’re considering the race angle, Daniel Kaluuya starred in the movie that will be more seen, so the odds are against Washington from all angles.
Best Actress
Take a Shot: Frances McDormand at 1/3. Three Billboards the movie has lots of backlash, but none of that is directed towards McDormand, who comes in firing fastballs and never stops.
Best Supporting Actor
Take a Shot: Christopher Plummer at 4/1. Sam Rockwell is the frontrunner, but his fellow actor in the same movie is nominated (Woody Harrelson, he will NOT win) and will take some of Rockwell’s vote. In addition, Plummer’s got the GREAT Oscar story: he comes in to replace the reviled Kevin Spacey and saves All the Money in the World by becoming the best character in it.
Best Supporting Actress
Stay Away: Octavia Spencer at 9/1. Looks enticing, since she’s won before, but Allison Janney and Laurie Metcalf are so good in their movies that this is a two person race. Like Denzel the race angle has Mary J. Blige in the more interesting movie, so she will get some of Octavia’s vote too.
Best Director
Stay Away: Guillermo Del Toro at 9/11. Your odds of getting money aren’t super great, and as much as Del Toro is loved, there are strong cases for Christopher Nolan, Greta Gerwig, and Jordan Peele. In general, I consider this category the biggest stay away…